| For any one company, there are many types of | | | | the same as that of a bakery exposed to the |
| financial risk - credit risk, market risk, operational | | | | volatility of wheat prices. However, what is most |
| risk, to name a few. | | | | important is being able to understand what your |
| However, one type of risk that has emerged as | | | | exposure is, what drives the prices of the |
| a key issue in today's global economy is | | | | commodities, and then coming up with a specific |
| commodity risk. | | | | strategy to address it. Luckily, there are a |
| Commodity risk refers to the exposure to | | | | number of commodity risk management systems |
| uncertainties of future income, caused by | | | | out there that make this process quite easy. |
| fluctuations in the prices of commodities. These | | | | It should be noted that an effective hedging |
| can include price risk, quantity risk, cost risk, and | | | | program does not attempt to eliminate all risk. |
| political risk. Take, for example, natural gas. | | | | Rather, it attempts to transform unacceptable |
| Between 1999-2003, prices skyrocketed from a | | | | risks into an acceptable form. The goal of any |
| low of $1.70/MMBtu to a high of $10.00/MMBtu | | | | hedging program should be to help the corporation |
| only to drop back down to $2.00/MMBtu by 2003. | | | | achieve the optimal risk profile that balances the |
| Today in 2010, natural gas trades roughly in the | | | | benefits of protection against the costs of |
| $3-$4 range but not before it hit a high of $15 | | | | hedging. |
| MMBtu in 2008. | | | | Listed below are 5 steps to establishing an |
| The natural gas example illustrates the extreme | | | | effective and tailored hedging program's needs. |
| level of volatility and unpredictability associated | | | | Step 1: Discover why you are hedging |
| with commodities. Many people mistakenly believe | | | | The first thing that is necessary is a clear |
| that a good hedging program will generate cost | | | | definition of the objectives of the hedge program. |
| savings. Instead, the primary purpose of a good | | | | Senior management must provide the owner of |
| hedging program is to eliminate a major source of | | | | the hedging program, with clear measures of |
| uncertainty and volatility while enabling companies | | | | success. An example could be to ensure the cost |
| to strategically focus on items and issues within | | | | of fuel does not exceed 25% of revenues over |
| their control. | | | | the next year. Without clearly defined and |
| Take a large multi million dollar bakery and ask | | | | quantifiable objectives, the outcomes from |
| yourself how would this company differentiate | | | | hedging cannot be accurately measured as |
| itself from the competition. Generally, it is through | | | | successful or unsuccessful. |
| unique and interesting products, solid marketing | | | | Step 2: Identify how much to hedge, and what to |
| expertise, and efficient operations like distribution | | | | hedge with? |
| and purchasing. Indeed, most strategic plans focus | | | | · Optionso Capso Floorso Putso Calls |
| on these key areas and plan accordingly. | | | | Two key considerations are 1) how much of the |
| When it comes to wheat futures trading though, | | | | projected commodity exposure to hedge, allowing |
| it is little more of a stretch to believe that any | | | | for a predetermined level of flexibility 2) which |
| one bakery could really have a competitive | | | | instruments and markets the company should |
| advantage in commodity trading. In fact, if a | | | | hold. There are a wide variety of listed and |
| bakery was so adept at trading, one would have | | | | over-the-country commodity instruments available |
| to wonder why operate a bakery at all. Close | | | | for companies to employ. However, the fact is |
| down the bakery and make a heck of a lot more | | | | that most derivative solutions are constructed |
| money by trading the futures. | | | | from two basic instruments: forwards and |
| While wheat futures may be a critical cost | | | | options, which comprise the following building blocs |
| component, companies have to recognize the | | | | · Forwardso Swapso Futureso FRAso Locks |
| difference between a controllable cost component | | | | Step 3: Execute the hedging strategy |
| and a non-controllable cost component. For the | | | | Within executing the hedging strategy it is |
| most part, manufacturers are price takers and do | | | | important, like all other financial activities, to |
| not control commodity prices which are set by | | | | implement a system of internal policies, |
| the market at large. That does not mean that | | | | procedures, and controls to ensure that it is used |
| companies should just throw their hands up and | | | | properly. The system often documented in a |
| give up. Rather they should strive to institute a | | | | hedging policy, establishes names of managers |
| risk management program that helps them | | | | authorized to enter into hedges, the managers |
| control the uncontrollable. Hence the importance | | | | who must approve trades etc. |
| of a good hedging program. | | | | Step 4: Ensure hedges are on track |
| This brings us to the first point about | | | | It is important to revalue the trades, track the |
| implementing a hedging program. Companies have | | | | P&L, and monitor the risk, ensuring that the |
| to recognize their exposure to a particular | | | | hedges remain effective versus the underlying |
| commodity risk. Generally, if your profit and loss | | | | exposure. |
| is subject to variability, based on what's being | | | | Step 5: Quantify the final outcome: |
| bought in commodity markets, this is an | | | | Once the hedge trades have settled, the next |
| important issue. You are at risk. | | | | step is to net the realized cashflows from the |
| There is certainly no overarching hedging strategy. | | | | derivative hedge trades against the physical |
| Every hedging program is different and needs to | | | | commodity purchases or sales. This provides the |
| be evaluated based upon criteria unique to a | | | | net commodity cost to the business, and enables |
| particular corporation, its risk tolerance, and its | | | | management and the board to evaluate whether |
| respective industry. The risk appetite of an airline | | | | the hedging program was a success versus the |
| to jet fuel price volatility, for example, will not be | | | | original corporate objectives. |