| Football pools systems really do work if they are | | | | cover the 20 selections in such a way that 25,000 |
| based on sound statistical analysis. Why do | | | | possible 8 match combinations are staked. This |
| systems work? Simply, because the performance | | | | reduces the odds significantly. |
| of football teams is not in the long run random - | | | | There are a number of systems available. Some |
| teams do in fact play broadly to form. | | | | are described in books available, for example, |
| There are two parts to solving the problem of | | | | from Amazon; others are downloadable online; |
| how to win the football pools. The first is the | | | | there are spreadsheets available; there is |
| statistical analysis - the designer of the system | | | | software. There are books which specialise in |
| will have looked at past results of teams and | | | | 'perms' and software which also does so. So, |
| matches, and then produced a mathematical | | | | quite a choice for those who are prepared to dig |
| model which explains the results with a reasonable | | | | around. |
| degree of accuracy, and enables predictions to be | | | | However, the whole process is based on sound |
| made on that basis. | | | | prediction of match results. To do that (assuming |
| Actually accuracy only needs to be slightly better | | | | that you cannot afford to regularly stake |
| than random. In roulette, the casino makes its | | | | thousands of pounds or dollars), then, having |
| money on a 2-3% edge, in the long run. In the | | | | bought a system, the user has to put in work to |
| football pools, that margin is adequate in the long | | | | maintain the basic data on which the analysis is |
| run, but we would expect to do much better | | | | based. There are organisations which offer tips |
| occasionally, and win. Of course, we want to win | | | | and there are comprehensive sets of match data |
| enough to cover the stakes on those weeks we | | | | and predictions available online (these are usually |
| did not win, so that it becomes a profitable | | | | subscription only). If the pools punter does not |
| exercise. | | | | want to subscribe, then several hours work will be |
| The second part in the football pools problem is | | | | required to prepare each entry. |
| the coverage. It is not economic to cover every | | | | The final key aspect is that to be successful in |
| possible combination on a coupon of 49 matches - | | | | this arena, then persistence is important - that |
| there are 450 million ways of lining up any eight | | | | one week that an entry is skipped may be the |
| score draw matches. Of course, then may not | | | | week that would have been the winner. We are, |
| even be eight score draw results in a given | | | | after all, working on a statistical basis. |
| coupon. That is where 'plans' and 'perms' come in. | | | | In conclusion, football pools systems can work if |
| These are ways of covering say 20 selections on | | | | they are well designed and properly used (that |
| a coupon in such a way that when there are | | | | means working to the numbers and not allowing |
| maybe 12-15 score draw results on a given | | | | one's views on a likely match outcome to affect |
| coupon, then we can have a reasonable | | | | the selections). If you are considering a system, |
| expectation of winnings if we have picked say six | | | | then any reputable system should be prepared to |
| or eight of those draws. Put simply, the plan may | | | | demonstrate a successful record of results. |